Somerset County Council will not be ‘the next Northamptonshire’ and will deliver a balanced budget – despite still predicting an overspend of about £2.4 million.

Peter Lewis, the council’s interim director of finance, has reiterated his commitment to balance the books before he leaves the council in 2019.Mr Lewis has also lowered his forecast for the amount of savings the council will have to find over the next three years.

A full update on the council’s financial predicament came before cabinet members in Taunton last Wednesday.

Deputy leader Mandy Chilcott confirmed the projected overspend for 2018/19 was still £2.368 million – lower than the £3.158 million forecast at the end of September, but still higher than last year’s overspend of £2.18 million, which leader David Fothergill branded ‘unacceptable’.

The council has a contingency fund in case of unforeseen spending over the winter, of which £3.38 million remained at the end of October – the most recent figures available.

Ms Chilcott added that 95 per cent of the savings identified in both the February budget and the additional cuts agreed in September were on target to be delivered.

The Government has confirmed that the council would be able to retain an additional £1 million in business rates in 2019/20, as part of a Somerset-wide pilot which could generate £6.8 million for local authorities.

Ms Chilcott said these figures had not yet been taken into account but would form part of the council’s budget planning for 2019/20.

She said: “The analysis of its impact is still being undertaken as certain details are not yet known.”

The Government’s funding settlement for local authorities indicated the council’s ‘core spending’ would rise by £13 million in 2019/20 – but this was largely dependent on the authority raising council tax by the maximum level without triggering a referendum.

Ms Chilcott said: “We have to view any increase above the referendum limit as excessive. The council is not prepared to act illegally and is not intending to hold a referendum.”

Mr Lewis added: “We are confident that this authority will end this financial year within its planned budget.”

Cllr Christine Lawrence welcomed the news but said the council had to be cautious not to overspend further in the event of a severe winter.

She said: “I feel a lot happier than I was six months ago. I think an awful lot of work has been well achieved. But we need to be a bit mindful that the winter is yet to be upon us. We need to be careful – spending may go up.”

In addition to its winter contingency, the council has £2.5 million at its disposal for adult social care over the winter, which is being used to free up acute beds in Somerset’s hospitals more quickly.

Looking ahead, Mr Lewis said the council would need to find £28 million in further savings by 2022, of which £15 million would need to be delivered in 2019/20.

This represents a drop from the £43 million being forecast in October, of which £19 million were being earmarked for the coming financial year.

Ms Chilcott added: “Officers have been working for several weeks to find proposals for change to bridge this gap, which will come before councillors in January.”

Council leader David Fothergill said: “It feels like we are in a very different place than we were in March. Over the course of the last six to nine months we have got a grip – we were being talked of as being the next Northamptonshire. I think this illustrates we’ve come a very long way.”

DANIEL MUMBY

Local democracy reporter